Abashakashatsi bavuga ko Isi ikwiye kwitegura ingaruka zo kuba imbyaro ziri kugabanuka mu buryo butangaje

Ikigereranyo cy’abana bavuka cyerekana ko hafi buri gihugu ku isi kizaba gifite abaturage bagabanutse cyane mu mpera z’iki kinyejana.Ibihugu 23 – birimo Ubuyapani na Espagne – ababituye bashobora kuzaba baragabanutseho kimwe cya kabiri mu 2100.

Aba bashakashatsi bavuga ko abatuye ibihugu bazaba biganjemo abari mu zabukuru.

Ni iki kiri kuba?

Igipimo cy’imbyaro – ikigereranyo cy’abana umugore umwe abyara – kiri kumanuka.

Niba iki kigereranyo kimanutse kikagera munsi ya hafi 2.1, icyo gihe umubare w’abatuye igihugu utangira kugabanuka.

Mu 1950, abagore bari ku kigereranyo cyo kubyara abana 4.7 mu buzima bwabo.

Abashakashatsi ba kaminuza ya Washington ikigo cy’imibare mu by’ubuzima, bavuga ko kiriya kigereranyo cyari kigeze hafi ya 2.4 mu 2017.

Ubushakashatsi bwabo bwatangajwe muri The Lancet, buteganya ko iki kigereranyo kizaba kigeze kuri 1.7 mu 2100.

Kubera ibyo, aba bahanga bateganya ko umubare w’abatuye uyu mubumbe uzagera ku gasongera ukaba miliyari 9.7 ahagana mu 2064, mbere yo kumanuka ukaba miliyari 8.8 mu mpera z’iki kunyejana.

Umushakashatsi Prof Christopher Murray yabwiye BBC ati: “Icyo ni ikintu gikomeye; kuba abaturage b’ibihugu byinshi ku isi bari kugabanuka.

“Ni ikintu kigoye gutekereza no kwemera uburyo bikomeye; kandi bidasanzwe, bizadusaba gutegura sosiyete zituye isi”.

Kuki imbyaro ziri kugabanuka?

Ntabwo ari ikibazo cy’intanga cyangwa ibindi abantu batekereza iyo havuzwe ikibazo cy’imbyaro.

Ahubwo birava ku kuba abagore benshi bari kwiga no gukora imirimo, hamwe no kuboneka kw’imiti iringaniza imbyaro, ibi bituma abagore bahitamo kubyara bacye.

Mu buryo bwinshi, kugabanuka kw’abatuye isi ni inkuru nziza.

Ni ibihe bihugu byugarijwe?

Abatuye Ubuyapani biteganyijwe ko bazagabanuka bakava kuri miliyoni 128 mu 2017 bakagera munsi ya miliyoni 53 mu mpera z’iki kinyejana.

Ubutaliyani bwiteze igabanuka nk’iri aho abaturage bazava kuri miliyoni 61 bakagera kuri 28 mu gihe nk’icyo.

Ibyo ni bibiri mu bihugu 23 – birimo na Portugal, Thailand, Espagne na Korea y’Epfo – biteganyijwe ko ababituye bazagabanukaho kimwe cya kabiri.




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